Study: War Has Killed 2.5% of Iraqi Population

A new study published in British medical journal The Lancet and led by Johns Hopkins' Gilbert Burnham estimates that "War has wiped out about 655,000 Iraqis or more than 500 people a day since the U.S.-led invasion." The study says, "Since March 2003, an additional 2.5 percent of Iraq's population have died above what would have occurred without conflict." The Lancet and Johns Hopkins were also responsible for the controversial 2004 study that put the number of deaths at 100,000.

That's a lot of people. What is most striking about this report, however, is the degree to which it differs from other estimates of Iraqi civilian deaths. The Iraq Body Count project tallied between 43,269 and 48,046 reported civilian deaths as of September 19 of this year. This summer the Los Angeles Times reported a total death toll of 50,000 for the Iraq War. Have 600,000 deaths really gone unreported? Critics have argued that more conservative reports focus too much on the Baghdad area and not enough on the rest of the country and the CNN.com article says, "Professionals familiar with such research told CNN that the [new] survey's methodology is sound." Still, when one estimate is 13 times greater than another, we need to critically evaluate all studies of Iraqi civilian deaths to determine which is most accurate.

If the number of civilian deaths is anywhere near 655,000, we need to seriously (and immediately) rethink our strategy in Iraq. I don't know if that mean pulling out or increasing troop levels, but it does mean that what we're doing isn't working.